| Sector | Personal Goods |
| Last closing price (30/01/2012) (p) | 645.5 |
| 52 week High/Low (p) | 1893.0/431.2 |
| Market Cap (£ mn) | 506.68 |
| Average volume (k) | 298.4 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 14.66 |
| Sector P/E ratio(TTM) | 9.22 |
Business background and investment rationale
SuperGroup PLC is a UK-based retailer focusing on the youth fashion market with clothing and accessories for both men and women. It has 72 standalone retail stores, 101 concessions and a large number of wholesale relationships. Superdry is sold in approximately 70 countries worldwide via its websites and in 36 overseas countries through a network of distributors, licensees, agents and franchisees.
Strong sales
The Christmas trading update (released in January 2012) for the nine weeks to 1 January 2012, showed SuperGroup’s total group sales reached £79m representing a climb of 22% from £65m delivered in the same period last year. Retail division sales were up by 28% to £66m from £52m and Group like-for-like retail sales, including internet, were up 5.8% during the period and up 9.3% in December 2011. The group’s Retail division has seen an improving sales trend as its stores became better stocked following the resolution of warehouse issues and the continued demand for its products and brand. Wholesale division sales were £13m, 4% lower compared with the previous year, due to different phasing of supplier deliveries and the natural migration of sales in the UK to the growing estate of owned stores. However, year-to-date wholesale sales were up by 54%.
Significant expansion of the Retail and Wholesale divisions
In the UK SuperGroup has 72 standalone stores and the group is on track to open 20 new stores by April 2012. The group is increasing its international presence with 21 new Superdry wholesale stores which opened in the second half of 2011. This brings the total number of stores to 101 and the company is on track to open 50 new stores by April 2012. Group e-commerce revenue almost doubled in 2011 and represents 8% of group revenues.
Technical outlook
SuperGroup is in a strong uptrend after the stock made higher lows above 460.0p. MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is positive and 12 day EMA (exponential moving average) is above 26 EMA indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day RSI (relative strength index) is above 60 and is forming a higher low also indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day positive DMI (directional moving index) is above 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX (average directional index) is at 21, again indicating a positive trend in the stock. 20 day EMA has crossed above 50 day EMA indicating a short term positive trend. The stock has resistance near 800.0p and support near 600.0p.
Trading strategy
The stock can be bought around 635.0p with a profit target 708.2p and stop loss of 603.1p
| Sector | Support Services |
| Last closing price (30/01/2012) (p) | 2059.0 |
| 52 week High/Low (p) | 2149.0/1377.4 |
| Market Cap (£ bn) | 5.59 |
| Average volume (k) | 505.4 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 25.95 |
| Sector P/E ratio(TTM) | 17.19 |
Business background and investment rationale
Aggreko PLC provides electrical power and temperature control to customers in need of them quickly, or for a short or indeterminate length of time. The company operates globally with 148 service centres and offices in 34 countries.
Strong performance for 2011
The trading statement announced in December 2011 showed the group’s revenue for 2011 will be up at least 20% while trading profits will increase by around 25%. Reported group revenues for the year are expected to be in the region of £1.4bn up 13% and profit before tax and amortisation is expected to be up by around 5% to £324m, which is slightly ahead of Aggreko’s previous guidance. The group expected that by the end of 2011 its net debt would be around £400m, an increase of some £270m over the prior year, with the main drivers being the very high levels of fleet investment and the return of capital to shareholders of £148m completed in July 2011. Underlying revenues in its International Power Projects business are expected to grow by about 24% in the fourth quarter, with growth for the year as a whole also expected to be around 24%. The group anticipates that order intake for 2011 will be around 1200 MW (Mega watts); 20% more capacity on hire than at the end of 2010.
In the Local business division, the strong year-on-year growth rates seen in the third quarter have continued in the fourth quarter of 2011. The company expects underlying revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011 to be around 20% higher than in 2010 and the growth rate for 2011 as a whole to be at a similar level of 2010.
Strong outlook for 2012
The group has started 2012 in a strong position, with at least 20% more on hire in International Power Projects than at the start of 2011 and with good momentum for the Local business division. In 2012, the Local business division will benefit from a contract to supply temporary power for the London Olympics, for which Aggreko has already committed significant resources. In the absence of any major change in the macro-economic environment the company expects to deliver strong growth in the first half of 2012. In terms of the rate of investment in the business, the group is seeing encouraging results in developing markets and plans to continue to expand its network and reach in countries with high rates of GDP growth. In terms of fleet investment the group currently plans to spend £320m in 2012.
Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, Aggreko is rebounding from its 52-week high of 2149.0p and could not break this resistance level considerably indicating consolidation in the stock. Momentum oscillator MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA supporting weakness in the positive trend. 14 day RSI has crossed below 70 and making lower highs while stock made a new high of 2149.0p indicating weakness in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 30 indicating a positive trend in the stock. The stock has crossed below 20 day EMA supporting weakness in positive trend. The stock has support near 2149.0p and resistance near 2000.0p.
Trading Strategy
Stock can be sold around 2080.0p with a profit target of 1872.0p and stop loss of 2170.5p.
Associated British Foods PLC
ABF’s positive trend weakened after the stock couldn’t make a new high above 1183.0p. MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA indicating strength in the uptrend. The 14 day RSI has crossed below 70 indicating a weakness in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is at 39 indicating a positive trend in the stock. Looking at the weakness in the positive trend, ABF should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 1172.0p and a stop loss of 1047.0p.
Next PLC
On the daily chart, Next is forming an uptrend after the stock made a new high of 2684.0p for the week. MACD is negative and 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA indicating a positive trend is forming in the stock. 14 day RSI has crossed above 50 indicating strength in the uptrend. 14 day positive DMI has crossed above 14 day negative DMI while 14 day ADX is at 10 indicating a consolidation in the stock. The stock should be a hold with same profit target of 2730.0p and a stop loss of 2462.4p.
Burberry Group PLC
Burberry’s positive trend weakened although the stock made a new high of 1367.0p. MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA indicating a positive trend. 14 day RSI is trading below 60 indicating weakness in the positive trend.14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI indicating a positive trend in the stock, while 14 day ADX is at 27 supporting a positive trend. Looking at the weakness in the positive trend the stock should be a hold with a reduced profit target 1350.0p and a stop loss of 1168.0p.
Kier Group PLC
Kier is in consolidation between 1350.0 and 1400.0p after the stock fell below 1400.0p. MACD has turned negative and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA indicating a weakness in the positive trend. 14 day RSI is below 50 showing a weakness in the uptrend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is near 16 indicating consolidation. The stock is also above 200 day EMA which supports the long term uptrend. The stock should be a hold with reduced profit target of 1390.0p and a stop loss of 1310.0p.
BATS PLC
BATS is still forming a bottom with higher lows above 2900.0p with little movement indicating consolidation in the stock. MACD is negative and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA indicating the stock is forming a bottom after it fell from a high of 3120.0p. 14 day RSI is below 50 indicating a weakness in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is below 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is at 17, indicating a consolidation in the stock. The stock is above 200 day EMA indicating the long term up trend is intact for the stock. The stock should be a hold with the same profit target of 3201.0p and a stop loss of 2783.0p.
ARM Holdings PLC
ARM is slightly positive for the week after the stock made a high of 609.5p but it is still in consolidation between 550.0p and 620.0p Momentum oscillator MACD is positive and 12 day EMA has crossed above 26 day EMA indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 50 indicating strength in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 12 indicating a consolidation. The stock is also above 20 and 50 day EMA supporting short term positive trend. The stock should be a hold with same profit target of 644.6p and a stop loss of 549.0p.
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