| Sector |
Software & Computer services |
Last closing price
(31/05/2011) (p) |
1945.0 |
| 52 week High/Low (p) |
1973.0/1235.0 |
| Market Cap (£mn) |
701.6 |
Sector weight age by
Market Cap (%) |
2.47 |
| Average Volume (k) |
27.2 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) |
25.45 |
Sector P/E
ration (TTM) |
27.1 |
TTM: Trailing Twelve Month

Daily chart (FDSA.L)
Business background and investment rationale
Fidessa Group PLC supplies multi-asset trading, portfolio analysis, decision support, investment compliance, market data and connectivity solutions for both the buy-side & sell-side globally.
Strong revenue growth
In a full year result announced in February 2011, Fidessa delivered good growth for 2010. Revenues increased to £262.3m; a rise of 10% on the same period last year. Recurring revenue maintained consistent growth, increasing by 10.1% to £213.5m from £193.9m in 2009 and now represents 81% of the firm’s total revenue. The business has no debt and continues to be cash generative closing the year with a cash balance of £63m, compared to £45.5m in 2009. Fidessa also continues to generate cash from operations, with an operating cash conversion rate of 157%. The group proposed a special dividend of 45.0p in addition to an annual dividend of 33.0p for 2010. During 2010 Fidessa’s network community continued to grow and it now supports over 13,000 connections carrying an order flow value of around $800bn every month, representing a 25% increase on a year ago.
Upbeat outlook
Fidessa expects the 2011 markets to be difficult however the group is confident that it will show good growth as a whole, similar to 2010. Recent relative strength in sterling will have a small adverse affect on the absolute growth rate. Improvements in market sentiment are starting to come through as financial firms adjust to the new environment and the regulation and market structure become clearer. As a result of this anticipated improvement in market sentiment, Fidessa has started to slowly increase its development spending, investing in more resource in Asia and proposing the expansion of its Belfast development centre. It is expected that this increase in development spending will have a small impact on the margin for 2011, although this is still anticipated to stay above historic levels.
Technical outlook
Fidessa is overbought after the stock made a new 52-week high of 1973.0p and started declining towards 1900.0p. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is above 26 day EMA supporting a positive trend in the stock. 14 day RSI (Relative Strength Index) has crossed below the level of 70, suggesting stock is overbought and it has not made a new high indicating some correction. The stock is above 20 day and 200 day EMA, which supports a positive trend. 14 day positive DMI (Directional Moving Index) is above 14 day negative DMI indicating a positive trend, while 14 day ADX (Average Directional Index) is above 48 supporting the uptrend. If the stock doesn’t hold above 1900.0p a lower move can be expected, with resistance near 1973.0p.
Trading strategy
The stock can be sold around 1960.0p with a profit target 1830.0p and stop loss of 2097.0p.
Stocks Update
Rolls-Royce PLC
Rolls-Royce is again making higher lows from a low of 614.5p indicating a positive trend in the stock. MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA indicating a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI has crossed above 50 indicating strength in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is just below 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 12 indicating a consolidation. The stock should be a hold with the same reduced profit target of 655.0p.
Amec PLC
Amec hit the stop loss of 1130.0p but the stock recovered from its low and is again trading above 1150.0p which indicates the stock is in a consolidation phase between 1100.0p and 1200.0p. Momentum oscillator MACD is negative and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA indicating weakness in the positive trend. 14 day RSI is below 50 indicating weakness in the positive trend. The stock is also below 20 day and 50 day EMA indicating a weakness in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is below 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 9, indicating a consolidation in the stock. All positions should be closed for the stock.
BATS PLC
BATS is consolidating below its 52-week high of 2749.0p indicating a weakness in the positive trend. MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is below 26 EMA indicating a weakness in the uptrend. 14 day RSI is trading below 70 indicating the stock is overbought and not forming a new high, while the recent stock price rise indicates a consolidation in the stock. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is at 25, indicting a positive trend. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 2565.0p and new a stop loss of 2889.0p.
Admiral PLC
Admiral is in a consolidation phase after the stock recovered from its low of 1626.0p making a high of 1741.0p for the week. Momentum oscillator MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA indicating a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 60 indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 28, indicating a positive trend in the stock. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 1620.0p and a new stop loss of 1830.0p.
G4S PLC
G4S made a new 52-week high of 285.2p last week with higher lows indicating the stock has recovered all its losses. MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is below 26 EMA indicating a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 60 indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is at 22, indicting a positive trend. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 269.0p and a new stop loss of 303.8p.
Inmarsat PLC
Inmarsat is still consolidating above 600.0p, indicating it is consolidating between 600.0p and 625.0p. Momentum oscillator MACD is negative and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA, showing weakness in the positive trend. 14 day RSI is below 50 also indicating weakness in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is below 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 8 indicating consolidation in the stock. The stock has immediate resistance at 650.0p and support near 600.0p. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 641.0p and new stop loss of 567.0p.
Burberry Group PLC
Burberry slumped to a low of 1256.0p indicating a weakness in the positive trend but the stock recovered above 1330.0p at the week’s end. MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA, supporting a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI is trading near 50 from the overbought zone with lower highs, indicating a correction in stock prices. The stock is above 20 day and 200 day EMA, which supports a positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is below 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is near 27 supporting a consolidation. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 1281.0p and a new stop loss of 1444.0p.
Chemring Group PLC
Chemring is forming an uptrend after the stock rebounded from its support level of 640.0p making higher lows. This is supported by the stock climbing above 20 day and 200 day EMA. MACD is still negative and 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA, indicating a positive trend is forming in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 50 and rising indicating the stock is forming an uptrend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative, while 14 day ADX is near 18 indicating a consolidation in the stock. Looking at the consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with reduced a profit target of 682.5p and a new stop loss of 604.5p.
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This report has been issued by CSS Partners LLP (“CSS Partners”). CSS Partners is an appointed representative of Charles Street Securities Europe LLP (“CSS”) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK. It constitutes non-independent “investment research” as contemplated by the FSA Rules and is thus considered a marketing communication. This report was prepared by Kuldeep Bhati who is employed as an analyst at CSS Partners and as such does not conform with the FSA definition of independent investment research and as such is not subject to the rule of not dealing ahead of distribution of the marketing communication and was not prepared in line with the legal requirements for independent communication.
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Risk Factors
There is no certainty that the recommendations will be successful or that they will make money for investors.
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Regulatory disclosures
In accordance with the Conduct of Business Rules COBS12.4.7R (i) in the preparation of the report the analyst used price and volume charts provided by independent data suppliers and applied technical analysis tools of investment and trading evaluation in arriving at his recommendations, ii) all recommendations made by the analyst are followed up in subsequent reports until the closure of a position, iii) there is no certainty that any recommendation will be successful or that technical analysis should be used exclusively to arrive at investment decisions.
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Distribution of recommendations for the period 1st October to 31st December 2010:
| |
% Distribution of recommendations |
No of recommendation |
| Buy |
95.25% |
20 |
| Hold |
0 |
0 |
| Sell |
4.75% |
1 |
The first column displays the % distribution of recommendations made by CSS Partners in this Technical Analysis Trading programme and the second column shows the numbers of such recommendation. Neither CSS nor CSS Partners has any investment banking relationships with any of the companies covered in the Technical Analysis Trading Programme, namely the companies in the FTSE 350 index.
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