FTSE350

31 May 2011
Market Report

Fidessa Group PLC
FDSA.L

Sector Software & Computer services
Last closing price
(31/05/2011) (p)
1945.0
52 week High/Low (p) 1973.0/1235.0
Market Cap (£mn) 701.6
Sector weight age by
Market Cap (%)
2.47
Average Volume (k) 27.2
P/E ratio (TTM) 25.45
Sector P/E
ration (TTM)
27.1

TTM: Trailing Twelve Month

Daily chart

Daily chart (FDSA.L)

Business background and investment rationale

Fidessa Group PLC supplies multi-asset trading, portfolio analysis, decision support, investment compliance, market data and connectivity solutions for both the buy-side & sell-side globally.

Strong revenue growth

In a full year result announced in February 2011, Fidessa delivered good growth for 2010. Revenues increased to £262.3m; a rise of 10% on the same period last year. Recurring revenue maintained consistent growth, increasing by 10.1% to £213.5m from £193.9m in 2009 and now represents 81% of the firm’s total revenue. The business has no debt and continues to be cash generative closing the year with a cash balance of £63m, compared to £45.5m in 2009. Fidessa also continues to generate cash from operations, with an operating cash conversion rate of 157%. The group proposed a special dividend of 45.0p in addition to an annual dividend of 33.0p for 2010. During 2010 Fidessa’s network community continued to grow and it now supports over 13,000 connections carrying an order flow value of around $800bn every month, representing a 25% increase on a year ago.

Upbeat outlook

Fidessa expects the 2011 markets to be difficult however the group is confident that it will show good growth as a whole, similar to 2010. Recent relative strength in sterling will have a small adverse affect on the absolute growth rate. Improvements in market sentiment are starting to come through as financial firms adjust to the new environment and the regulation and market structure become clearer. As a result of this anticipated improvement in market sentiment, Fidessa has started to slowly increase its development spending, investing in more resource in Asia and proposing the expansion of its Belfast development centre. It is expected that this increase in development spending will have a small impact on the margin for 2011, although this is still anticipated to stay above historic levels.

Technical outlook

Fidessa is overbought after the stock made a new 52-week high of 1973.0p and started declining towards 1900.0p.  MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is above 26 day EMA supporting a positive trend in the stock. 14 day RSI (Relative Strength Index) has crossed below the level of 70, suggesting stock is overbought and it has not made a new high indicating some correction. The stock is above 20 day and 200 day EMA, which supports a positive trend. 14 day positive DMI (Directional Moving Index) is above 14 day negative DMI indicating a positive trend, while 14 day ADX (Average Directional Index) is above 48 supporting the uptrend. If the stock doesn’t hold above 1900.0p a lower move can be expected, with resistance near 1973.0p.

Trading strategy

The stock can be sold around 1960.0p with a profit target 1830.0p and stop loss of 2097.0p.

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Stocks Update

Rolls-Royce PLC

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BATS PLC

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Admiral PLC

Admiral is in a consolidation phase after the stock recovered from its low of 1626.0p making a high of 1741.0p for the week. Momentum oscillator MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA indicating a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 60 indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 28, indicating a positive trend in the stock. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 1620.0p and a new stop loss of 1830.0p.

G4S PLC

G4S made a new 52-week high of 285.2p last week with higher lows indicating the stock has recovered all its losses. MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is below 26 EMA indicating a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 60 indicating a positive trend in the stock. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is at 22, indicting a positive trend. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 269.0p and a new stop loss of 303.8p.

Inmarsat PLC

Inmarsat is still consolidating above 600.0p, indicating it is consolidating between 600.0p and 625.0p. Momentum oscillator MACD is negative and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA, showing weakness in the positive trend. 14 day RSI is below 50 also indicating weakness in the positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is below 14 day negative DMI, while 14 day ADX is near 8 indicating consolidation in the stock. The stock has immediate resistance at 650.0p and support near 600.0p. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 641.0p and new stop loss of 567.0p.

Burberry Group PLC

Burberry slumped to a low of 1256.0p indicating a weakness in the positive trend but the stock recovered above 1330.0p at the week’s end.  MACD is positive and in MACD 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA, supporting a consolidation in the stock. 14 day RSI is trading near 50 from the overbought zone with lower highs, indicating a correction in stock prices. The stock is above 20 day and 200 day EMA, which supports a positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is below 14 day negative DMI and 14 day ADX is near 27 supporting a consolidation. Looking at consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 1281.0p and a new stop loss of 1444.0p.

Chemring Group PLC

Chemring is forming an uptrend after the stock rebounded from its support level of 640.0p making higher lows. This is supported by the stock climbing above 20 day and 200 day EMA. MACD is still negative and 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA, indicating a positive trend is forming in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 50 and rising indicating the stock is forming an uptrend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative, while 14 day ADX is near 18 indicating a consolidation in the stock. Looking at the consolidation in the stock it should be a hold with reduced a profit target of 682.5p and a new stop loss of 604.5p.

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