FTSE350

22 February 2010
Market Report

Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC
ENRC.L

Sector Mining
Last closing price
(22/02/2010) (p)
1065
52 week High/Low (p) 1085/302.25
Market Cap (£bn) 13.35
Sector weight age by
Market Cap (%)
5.74
Average Volume (mn) 2.3
P/E ratio (TTM) 11.09
Sector P/E
ration (TTM)
2.91

TTM: Trailing Twelve Month

Daily chart (ENRC.L)

 

Business background and investment rationale

Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC is the holding company of a diversified natural resources group: with integrated mining, processing, energy, logistical and marketing operations.

Recovery in production of ferrochrome and iron ore division

In a fourth quarter production report announced in the first week of February 2010, recovery at ENRC’s Ferroalloys and Iron Ore Divisions in Kazakhstan saw them return to full operating capacity, reflecting the improved market conditions. Ferrochrome production in the fourth quarter increased by 56.7% compared to the same period in 2008, and represented a 5.7% increase from Q3 2009. Iron Ore production volumes also rose strongly compared to Q4 2008; a 74.1% growth in iron ore extraction and a 79.3% increase for primary concentrate reflecting the recovery in market activity. In the energy division, coal extraction increased 11% compared to Q4 2008, demonstrating a return in demand. Electricity generation climbed by 23.9% compared to Q4 2008, also thanks to growing demand as well as reinstated capacity. In the alumina division, bauxite extraction volumes were broadly stable while alumina production increased by 2% on the same period in 2008.

Acquisitions

In September 2009 ENRC bought the Central African Mining & Exploration Company PLC (CAMEC) for £584m. The acquisition provides access to large copper/cobalt resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo with the potential to support significant scalable and low-cost production capacity. In the last two months of 2009 CAMEC produced 2,771 tonnes of copper cathode and 1,297 tonnes of cobalt concentrate. Complementing the CAMEC acquisition, in February 2010 ENRC agreed to buy Enya Holdings for $300m, adding Zambian copper and cobalt to the overall production. The two acquisitions will enable ENRC to fast-track its copper and cobalt expansion, reaching a combined total capacity of 130 kilo tonnes per annum of LME (London Metal Exchange) Grade A copper cathode and 12 kilo tonnes per annum of cobalt contained metal salts and concentrates by 2012.

Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, ENRC has broken upside from a channel between 850.0p and 1050.0p with higher lows, and today made a new 52 week high of 1085.0 which indicates a strong positive trend for the stock. Momentum oscillator MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is positive and 12 day EMA (exponential moving average) has crossed above 26 day EMA indicating a breakout. RSI (relative strength index) is above 60 indicating a strong positive trend. 14 day positive DMI (directional moving index) is above 14 day negative DMI indicating a strong uptrend. Stock has to consolidate above 1000.0p for an uptrend, with support near 1000.0p and resistance near 1150.0p.

Trading strategy

Stock can be bought near 1045.0p with a profit target of 1165.5p and stop loss of 992.6p.

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PartyGaming PLC
PRTY.L

Sector Travel & Leisure
Last closing price
(22/02/2010) (p)
295.6
52 week High/Low (p) 300.0/171.0
Market Cap (£bn) 1.19
Sector weight age by
Market Cap (%)
2.12
Average Volume (mn) 0.98
P/E ratio (TTM) 21.36
Sector P/E
ration (TTM)
34.95

TTM: Trailing Twelve Month

Daily chart (PRTY.L)

Business background and investment rationale
PartyGaming PLC is an online gaming company with a particular focus on internet poker and casinos. The poker business represents 66% of the firm’s total revenues. Trading under two brands, PartyCasino and Starluck Casino, the company offers a variety of games including slot machines, blackjack, roulette, keno and video poker. It also operates PartyBingo.com offering a range of online bingo games.

Resilient performance in poker and casino business

In the fourth quarter results announced in February 2010, PartyGaming continued to make good progress despite pressures from a highly competitive market and adverse currency movements. Total revenue for the quarter was $132.2m largely driven by the Cashcade acquisition. This represents growth of 17% from the third quarter and compares with $100.4m for the same period in 2008. The casinos were a key driver of strong performance having benefited from an improved games mix and the recycling of a major jackpot win during December 2009. Sports betting saw an increased gross turnover as well as a gross win margin following operational improvements and favourable results. New player sign-ups increased by 3% on the previous quarter reaching over 213,000, and also compares favourably with the 168,000 players registered in 2008.

Expansion in business-to-business operations

To increase its presence in business-to-business operations, PartyGaming has signed an exclusive five-year agreement to provide an online gaming poker and casino platform in Denmark for Danske Spil A/S.

Danske Spil has established a large online gaming business and has over 500,000 registered online customers. In November 2009 PartyGaming launched an online poker service in Italy for Fueps, Italy’s leading casual games operator, as part of a three-year exclusive deal. More than 550,000 registered users play over 100 games on Fueps’ casual games website. Recently the group completed the acquisition of WPT Enterprises Inc. for a cash consideration of $12.3m plus an additional minimum aggregate payment of $3m over the next three years relating to an ongoing revenue share agreement. The ClubWPT subscription poker offering has more than 16,500 paying subscribers in 37 US states. It also has an extensive library of over 150 hours of poker programming which is broadcast in more than 150 countries. PartyGaming continues to hold discussions with a number of companies in the gaming sector regarding potential consolidation opportunities.

Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, PartyGaming is near to break out from a channel of 234.0p and 300.0p indicating a positive trend for the stock. Stock also made a higher low and is making a positive slope, which is an encouraging sign. Momentum oscillator MACD is positive and 12 day EMA has crossed above 26 day EMA indicating a strong positive trend in the stock. RSI is above 60 indicating a positive trend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI supporting the uptrend. Stock has resistance at 360.0p and support near 234.0p.

Trading strategy

Stock can be bought near 290.0p with a profit target of 323.4p and stop loss of 275.4p

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Stocks Update

Whitbread PLC

On the daily chart,Whitbread is trading above the channel between 1344.0p and 1417.0p, hitting the reduced profit target of 1400.0p which indicates an uptrend for the stock.  MACD is positive and 12 day EMA has crossed above 26 day EMA indicating the formation of an uptrend. 14 day RSI is also below 60 supporting strength in trend. Positive DMI is slightly above negative DMI, while ADX is below 20 indicating consolidation. All positions should be closed for the stock.

Wellstream Holdings PLC

On the daily chart, Wellstream is forming a slight uptrend as MACD is still negative but 12 day EMA is slightly above 26 day EMA. 14 day RSI is above 50 indicating that it is forming a bottom near 500.0p. 14 day positive DMI is still below 14 day negative and ADX is below 20 indicating weakness in the uptrend. Stock is above 20 day EMA supporting the short-term uptrend. Looking at the uptrend movement forming in the stock it should be a hold with a reduced profit target of 495.0p.

Chemring Group PLC

On the daily chart, Chemring continues in a positive trend and is trading near 3200.0p. It is still above 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA which suggests the short-term uptrend is still intact. MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is below 26 day EMA, indicating a rebound from the 52 week high. 14 day RSI is above 50 showing strength in trend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative, while ADX is near 25 indicating an uptrend. Stock should be a hold with the same profit target.

Imperial Tobacco Group PLC

Imperial is continuously making a higher low from its 52 week low of 1368.0p with a positive slope, which is an encouraging sign. Trend for the stock looks positive as MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is just below 26 day EMA, which indicates an uptrend. 14 day RSI is above 50 showing strength in trend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative DMI and ADX is near 35 indicating a strong trend in the stock. Stock should be a hold with the same profit target.

Fidessa group PLC

On the daily chart, Fidessa is still trading above a channel between 1058.0p and 1300.0p with higher lows indicating an uptrend for the stock. MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA indicating an uptrend in the stock. 14 day RSI is above 70 and both the indicators are making an uptrend. 14 day positive DMI is above 14 day negative and ADX is near 30 indicating uptrend. Stock should be a hold with the same profit target.

Compass group PLC

On the daily chart, Compass has broken above from 470.1p making a new 52 week high of 481.0p which indicates an uptrend in the stock, but entry could be taken at 454.2p above recommended price of 448.0p. MACD is positive and 12 day EMA is above 26 day EMA, indicating an uptrend. 14 day RSI is above 60 showing strength in trend. ADX is above 20 and positive 14 day DMI is above negative 14 day DMI showing an uptrend is forming. Stock is above 20 day and 50 day EMA, and is still above 200 day EMA which indicates the short and long-term uptrend is intact for the stock. Stock should be a hold with the same profit target and new stop loss of 432.0p

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