Business Background and Investment rationale
National Express Group PLC is a public transport company with operations in United Kingdom, Spain and North America. The Company’s divisions include trains, buses and coaches. The network operates to more than 1,000 destinations within the United Kingdom, including all of the major United Kingdom airports.
Strong demand for bus and train services
National Express has focus on providing excellent value fares to drive revenue growth for its bus and train services as soaring fuel prices are encouraging travelers to switch from car to public transport. The company will gain more market share on British Airways announced domestic capacity reductions, and with car drivers seeing continued fuel pain on the London to Leeds/York/Newcastle/Edinburgh routes.
Fuel Hedging and improved operating efficiency
National express has hedge all its fuel for 2008 and 56% hedged for its total needs in 2009. Group is confident to recover additional fuel costs through a combination of innovative pricing mechanisms and improved operating efficiency. In UK, the integration of operations into a single division based in Birmingham will delivered annualized 11m cost savings. In Spain, successful integration of Continental Auto with Alsa will expands the range of products and services in existing businesses, and strengthen National express position in Spanish transport market.
Technical outlook
On daily chart NEX has retreat from low of 924.0p and cross above 20 day and 50 day exponential moving average indicating a bullish move. MACD is positive and 14 day RSI is above 50.0 showing strength in move. 14 day +DMI have cross above 14 day -DMI indicating a trend is forming upside. Stochastic oscillator is oversold and fast stochastic has above slow stochastic a weak buy signal is generated. Stock has first leg of support near 920.0p and if it breaches it has support near 850.0p. Stock has strong resistance near 1053.0p level and if it rise above resistance can found near 1140.0p.
Trading strategy
The stock can be sold around 957.0p with a profit target 1071.0p and stop loss of 909.0p (Hedge position: Short position in spread betting with £1.305 bet per point)


